NBA Finals Primer: Starting 5 🖐️

06/01/2023

By: Jeff Yoder

The 5 Things You Need to Know for the 2023 NBA Finals (Game 1: Tonight, 8:30 pm ET)

It all comes down to this. Two teams from very different paths converge at the summit for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The underdog 8-seed Miami Heat have one more giant to slay to pull off the unthinkable, but two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are trying to make history of their own. The matchups breed intrigue, and the off-court storylines do, too. Let’s get ready for two weeks (or more) of all-or-nothing ball. Here are five of the most important stats and storylines you need to know for the Finals.

1. The Nuggets Are Huge Favorites

The Nuggets (-360) are gigantic odds-on favorites, and understandably so. They’re the 1-seed from a loaded Western Conference that required them to go through the Timberwolves, Suns, and Lakers, and no team really challenged them. Denver went 12-3 through three series, surrendering one game to Minnesota and two games to Phoenix before sweeping Los Angeles. The Heat are the 8-seed from the East, and their underdog moniker will certainly follow them into the Finals. The Nuggets are the third-largest Finals favorite in the last 20 seasons.

Largest NBA Finals Favorites (Last 20 Years)

2018: Warriors (-1075) vs. Cavaliers (+688) | Winner: Warriors

2007: Spurs (-450) vs. Cavaliers (+360) | Winner: Spurs

2023: Nuggets (-360) vs. Heat (+290) | Winner: TBD

2020: Lakers (-350) vs. Heat (+290) | Winner: Lakers

2. The History & Construction of Each Team

While the Heat boast a better historical claim to success with three championships (2006, 2012 & 2013), they’ll look to make history as the first 8-seed to ever win a title. In fact, no 7-seed has won the NBA Finals either. The problem? The Nuggets have never won a title, let alone reached the Finals, and they surely won’t go without a fight. The Heat are looking for their fourth in 17 years, and the Nuggets are gunning for their first. There’s a lot on the line. Additionally, both teams reached the Finals through very different paths of roster construction. The Nuggets have added contributing pieces like Aaron Gordon and rode the waves of triple-double-laden MVP seasons from Nikola Jokic while Jamal Murray battled back from a major knee injury. The Heat, on the other hand, brought in Jimmy Butler three seasons ago to a cast of mostly undrafted dawgs who play with a chip on their shoulder.

Nuggets Starting Lineup: 5 1st-Round Draft Picks

Heat Starting Lineup: 3 Undrafted Players

Editor’s Note: If Tyler Herro returns to Miami’s starting lineup, he’ll be the third starter who was actually drafted. Jimmy Butler (Rd 1, Pick 30, 2011) and Bam Adebayo (Rd 1, Pick 17, 2017) are the only two Heat starters who were selected in the draft. Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson all went undrafted.

3. The Stars & X-Factors

We all know about Jimmy Butler’s ridiculous playoff run, especially in the opening-round upset of the 1-seed Bucks. Butler had a 56-point night and a 42-point outburst in back-to-back games. He’s cooled down since, but he’s still been clutch. On the other hand, Nikola Jokic also had a 40-ball and a 50-piece in these playoffs. Jamal Murray has also had a 40-burger and a number of high-30s nights. Those three stars are the focal points, but some x-factors will definitely need to bring a spark. Here’s a breakdown of the star stats and the x-factors we’ll be watching:

Star Players (Playoff Averages)

Nikola Jokic (DEN): 29.9 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 10.3 apg

Jamal Murray (DEN): 27.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 6.1 apg

Jimmy Butler (MIA): 28.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.7 apg

Bam Adebayo (MIA): 16.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.8 apg

*Jimmy Butler’s 2.1 steals per game leads all players

X-Factors

The Nuggets have three key x-factors that’ll determine how far Jokic and Murray can roll. We expect the star duo to get 50-60 a night, but they’ll need Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. to not just contribute, but excel. For the Heat, they’ll go as far as their shooting allows. That defense can stall any good offensive team, but they need points on offense, too. Butler can explode at any moment, but the trio of undrafted sharpshooters will play an important role in providing offense — Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent.

4. Team Identity: Offense vs. Defense

We looked at stats from all 16 playoff teams to see where the Heat and Nuggets have been particularly dominant this postseason, and we found some interesting info. Miami leads all playoff teams in 3-point shooting (39%), but the Nuggets are second in that category (38.6%). The Nuggets are the playoff leaders in the fewest turnovers per game (10.3) while Miami sits in the middle of the pack (11.6). Overall, the Nuggets are the leaders in offensive efficiency while the defensive categories belong to the Heat. It’s a high-powered offense that runs through Jokic and Murray against Miami’s tough-noised defensive strategy spearheaded by Erik Spoelstra.

5. The Mile-High Altitude Advantage

If you put the crazy analytics to rest and use common sense for a second, this series can be simplified to one big, mountainous advantage — altitude. The Nuggets earned the right to the No. 1 seed in the West, and the result has been home-court advantage throughout the postseason. The altitude in Denver is something visiting teams have continued to mention in the playoffs, and it’s no joke. The Nuggets are 12-3 in the postseason, but they’re 8-0 at home. Miami is a tough place to play, too, but the Heat are just 6-2 in home games during these playoffs.

From the Rocky Mountains to Miami Beach, let’s tip the series to decide them all.

NBA Finals Schedule

Game 1: Heat at Nuggets (Tonight, 8:30 pm ET)

Game 2: Heat at Nuggets (Sun. June 4, 8:00 pm ET)

Game 3: Nuggets at Heat (Wed. June 7, 8:30 pm ET)

Game 4: Nuggets at Heat (Fri. June 9, 8:30 pm ET)

Game 5: Heat at Nuggets (Mon. June 12, 8:30 pm ET)

Game 6: Nuggets at Heat (Thurs. June 15, 8:30 pm ET)

Game 7: Heat at Nuggets (Sun. June 18, 8:00 pm ET)

The Ringer: 1st Look at the NBA Finals Matchup Between Nuggets & Heat

Yahoo! Sports: How the Nuggets & Heat Built NBA Finals Contenders With Different Paths

CBS Sports: Coco Gauff Says Heat’s Jimmy Butler Offered Her NBA Finals Tickets Before Playoffs Began

Photo: C. Morgan Engel / Getty Images